India Deals With Uphill Battle to Fulfill 2030 Environment Targets: Fitch

Hicmtw

India need to substantially alter its existing trajectory if it has to provide on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s environment targets for 2030, Fitch Solutions said on Friday. Modi at the COP26 announced India by 2030 will increase its non-fossil fuel power generation capacity to 500 GW, create 50 per cent of its power from eco-friendly sources, lower its overall carbon emission by 1 billion tonnes and bring down carbon intensity of its economy by 45 percent. “India now faces the challenge of balancing strong economic growth with a sharp deceleration in its CO2 emissions,” Fitch Solutions said in a note. “India must substantially change its present trajectory, if it is to deliver on its commitments. Based upon the existing state of play, the country will fall far except its environment objectives.” As of 2020, coal, oil and gas represented 55%, 28% and 7% of the main energy mix, respectively.

“quote they will account for a respective 45%, 33% and 8%. That is, their total share will fall from 90% to 86%, with a decline in coal mostly balanced out by an increase in oil and gas. “Admittedly, we have proxied renewables development with the growth in renewables power generation. Provided that renewables look set to grow more quickly beyond the power sector (e.g. in biofuels and hydrogen), we have likely understated their share in the general energy mix in 2030. Nevertheless, development will take place from such an extremely low base that the effect will likely be marginal,” it said.Stating that the greatest prospects for displacing fossil fuels are in the power sector, Fitch said the targets are most likely to be missed out on in absence of an action modification in the sector.”Our experts currently anticipate nuclear, hydropower and non-hydropower renewables generation capability to reach 314GW by 2030, with their share in total generation increasing to around 30%. Both would then fall shy of their targets, of 500GW and 50%, “it said.A number of headwinds in the kind of supply chain traffic jams, restricted domestic production capacity and more comprehensive hold-ups to predict developments will likely continue to weigh on growth, it said. In the transportation sector, the simplest reduction choices lie in the road transport section. Presently, EVs account for less than 0.05 %of the total car fleet, with restricted domestic EV options and a lack of charging infrastructure among the essential barriers to growth. However both the central and state federal governments are broadening incentive schemes to increase the production and sales of EVs.”While India is undoubtedly taking actions in the ideal direction, more policy support will be needed, to significantly deteriorate the need for oil.”Based upon the current policy landscape, our Autos team projection rapid, 1,200 %development in the EV fleet over the coming decade. However, EVs will still account for less than 1.0 %of the total fleet by 2030, “it said.Moreover, emissions reduction advantages will be restricted, as long as nonrenewable fuel sources stay the dominant source of power generation in the country. Greater fuel standards, improved engine efficiency and higher ethanol blending requireds will likely to represent a higher share of oil demand destruction over a 10-year horizon.The other transport sectors are harder to ease off. Both the maritime and aviation sectors are greatly reliant on oil and the high cost and low technological maturity of alternative fuels, integrated with long fleet renewal cycles, will limit uptake in the near term. “There is substantial scope for emissions decrease in

the commercial sector. Emissions reductions will mainly stem from improved energy effectiveness, with electrification, a switch to alternative feedstocks and the implementation of carbon capture innovations all dealing with considerable technical and financial barriers to uptake, “it added.Read all the most recent News, Breaking News and Coronavirus News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Telegram.Published at Fri, 26 Nov 2021 05:40:57 -0600